CompStat News

Cold weather plus extra Impact Zone cops—I figured all the muggers would stay home. So what happened?

Here are the latest police numbers on robberies/muggings for the 77th Precinct, which includes Prospect Heights and most of Crown Heights.

Week
Starting

2/18………...…...8 (up 14.2% from 7 a year ago)
2/11……...……...6 (up 200% from 2 a year ago)
2/4.................6 (no change from 6 a year ago)
1/28...............3 (no change from 3 a year ago)

Last 28 Days...23 (up 27.7% from 18 a year ago)

Since the only reason I gather this information off the police website is so that I can show my wife how safe the neighborhood is getting, this is kind of depressing. Depressing because the numbers rose as temperatures fell, and also because even with more cops, we couldn't continue to match last year's numbers.

Subject: Statistics

Another way to think of it, that may not be so depressing: Those stats are a measure of how many crimes get reported, not how many are actually happening. Not everyone goes to the cops when the get mugged, for various reasons.

So it's possible that the reason the numbers are going up is because people are a) more aware of crime in the neighborhood and more willing to come forward b) are better able to report it to the police since it's easier to reach them and seeing them all over is a reminder that they're nearby.

Or, it could be that crime is increasing. It's hard to tell.

or it could just be that the numbers were so low they have no where to go but up

All I know is they have cops sitting at the Park Pl shuttle station during rush hour.

Not so surprising. Over the years and mostly in my "growing up" stage in NYC, at least half the mugging-related incidents, fights, or general antisocials I was involved in were in the dead of winter.