Predictions re: Tuesday's Crown Heights City Council election. - Brooklynian

Predictions re: Tuesday's Crown Heights City Council election.

Tuesday is a local election and it is time for election predictions. If my memory serves me correctly, about 5k people voted for Laurie Cumbo in the primary and 3.5k people voted for Ede Fox. Ede Fox has now withdrawn and we have Jabari still running as a DSA/Green. Should you have any interest in such things, please let us know how many people total will vote on Tuesday and the break out. Thanks

Comments

  • Me: 12,000 total will vote, 85% for Cumbo and 5% for Jabari. The other 10% will vote for republicans or write in candidates
  • Ms. Whynot: 17,00 total votes, 80% Cumbo and 15% for Jabari, the remainder will vote republican and/or random people
  • Not sure on number of voters or breakout but I will say that if this election can be predicted based on social media support, it’ll be Jabari by a landslide. I’m seeing Jabari everywhere on Twitter and crickets from Laurie. Unclear if she is even trying to turn her voters out to the polls. Again, this is based on just a limited view of social media but Jabari seems to have all of the momentum. Perhaps Laurie doesn’t think this will be a contest? Regardless, very curious to see the results come in tomorrow.
  • My sense is that social media is a very poor indicator of political support, especially in a district like ours. This is all about church appearances and senior center funding. My sense is that the turnout will be really low, but that is who will turn out.
  • edited November 7
    whynot_31 said:
    My sense is that social media is a very poor indicator of political support, especially in a district like ours. This is all about church appearances and senior center funding. My sense is that the turnout will be really low, but that is who will turn out.
    Meanwhile, people over on the PLG Facebook group are chatting all about Brian Cunningham vs. Matthieu Eugene over in District 40...It'll be interesting to see what happens there.
  • Ah, and in true form, Mr. Eugene is out breaking some more rules to show us all what an upstanding council member he'll be if he wins again. I expect it will also be the last bit of effort he puts into the position if elected until the next cycle, save a few photo ops!
  • While much of the country laments the two party system, those of us in Brooklyn lament a one party system.
  • Looks like Laurie Cumbo is going to win with around two thirds of the vote. Over 20,000 votes cast in total, which is pretty impressive considering how miserable the weather was today. I got completely drenched on my way to and from voting.
  • Yes, the voter turnout is surprising me. After 15 years in the neighborhood, it still amazes me that so many more people vote in the general election than the primaries. ...do the ballot issues bring them out? Is it that schools are closed? ...do they not register Democratic and vote in the primary because they do not understand that the democrat wins, and the only decision is WHICH democrat they would like?
  • The primaries are definitely the most important. I try to vote in the general election for ballot initiatives and to vote the Working Families Party line. Other than that it's a fairly perfunctory exercise in trying to set a good example for all those people who say it doesn't matter whether you vote or not. The same reason I bit the bullet and voted for Hillary after supporting Bernie in the primary. Sometimes you have to model what a responsible adult looks like.
  • edited November 8
    rararuuu said:
    Ah, and in true form, Mr. Eugene is out breaking some more rules to show us all what an upstanding council member he'll be if he wins again. I expect it will also be the last bit of effort he puts into the position if elected until the next cycle, save a few photo ops!
    Yes, some over in the PLG Facebook group claim that this was not the first time Mr. Eugene had done something like this. People claimed to have reported this behavior before, but apparently, nothing was done.

    Diana Richardson made a post about all the steps to follow to report violations at the polls.

  • I read that on a citywide basis about 15% of those eligible voted in the primary, and about 24% voted in the general election. In such situations, you only have to be nice to (i.e. fund) the causes of a limited number of people who you think will vote. It is tough to get an incumbent voted out when they have such bases.
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